TBC Capital Presents Renewed, Third Study on COVID 19 Impact on Georgian Economy
TBC Capital has hosted an online conference to assess the impact of COVID 19 on the economy and business sectors.
At the meeting, representatives of business and public sector discussed the current situation, the latest dynamics of major macro-parameters, forecasts and expectations for economic recovery. Also, the forecasts for 2020-2021 regarding separate business sectors were reviewed.
According to the basic scenario of TBC Capital, the economy is expected to decrease by 4.5-5.5% in 2020. The forecast for 2020 tourist inflows and FDI has deteriorated, although expectations of foreign trade and remittances have improved. At the same time, in anticipation of TBC's capital, the sharp depreciation of the lari is unlikely and by the end of the year the Georgian Lari will stabilize at 3.0. By the end of the year, inflation was expected to fall from 5% to 4.5%, while refinancing expectations fell from 8% to 7.75%.
Cashless payments exhibit an increasing tendency, however, increasing share of non-cash payments as well as pent-up demand in some sectors might be in play.
Gradual normalization of residential real estate sales can be observed, the dynamics will be further reinforced by the state support programs. The expected decline of the apartment sales transactions is revised upwards from 30% to 20% YoY.
Hotel reservations are increasing, mostly on the back of the domestic tourism, however, given the continuous border closure, the expectations for 2020 in this sector are somewhat downgraded.
"Together with our partners, we had another interesting review of the findings of a renewed study of TBC Capital. The weekly updated, quick indicators and monthly summary reports of TBC Capital are an additional tool for assessing the situation for companies, planning the next few months and effectively adapting the business to the situation, ”said Giorgi Tkhelidze, TBC's Deputy General Manager.
An analysis presented by TBC Capital in Georgian and English can be found on the website: Tbcresearch.ge.