G&T: Inflation Rate in Georgia will Reach 4.5% in 2021
Investment bank Galt And Taggart has released its 2021 inflation forecast.
According to the document, the investment bank forecasts an inflation rate of 4.5% this year.
Galt And Taggart's prediction is based on several assumptions, including the Georgian lari exchange rate, the risk of a pandemic and, consequently, quarantine prolongation, and rising world prices. In addition, the document states that the National Bank will have the opportunity to reduce the monetary policy rate or the price of money in the event of a resumption of tourism, and the value of one US dollar will be about 3.1 GEL. At present, the monetary policy rate is quite high, at 8%.
Recall that in December 2020, the country recorded -1% inflation, or deflation, while the annual growth rate of the general level of prices is 2.4%.
The Investment Bank also predicts that the Georgian economy will begin to recover and grow in the second quarter of 2021.