TBC Capital Expects GDP Decline of 5-5.5% in 2020

The GDP decline is expected to be in the range of 5-5.5% in 2020, however, in the conditions of the virus increase, without additional fiscal stimulus, the 2020 growth will be deviated to the lower limit of the forecast, - says the macro-sectoral study of TBC Capital.

The investment company predicts that in 2021 the economy is expected to return to pre-crisis levels; Prior to the resumption of tourism, fiscal spending remains the main driver of growth. By the end of the year, inflation will return to 3%.

"Despite the relatively low rate of inflation, a sharp decline in the monetary policy rate is not expected, as the exchange rate remains a significant risk factor for rising prices," TBC Capital suggests.