Shane Rosenthal: Region's Economy will Suffer Between USD 60 to USD 297 Billion Due to Pandemic
According to Shane Rosenthal, the Permanent Representative of the Asian Development Bank in Georgia, the region's economy will suffer between $ 60 billion and $ 279 billion due to the current pandemic.
The latest forecast scenarios of the Asian Development Bank were discussed in the First Channel's program "Business Partner", including the impact of the global pandemic on the world economy, as well as the Georgian economy.
As for Mr. Rosenthal, the bank had considered three possible scenarios for the impact of the pandemic, the lightest, the middle and the heaviest. According to these scenarios, the damage to the world economy will range from $ 77 billion to $ 347 billion, which means that global GDP growth will decline from 0.1 to 0.4 percent.
However, the Permanent Representative of the Asian Development Bank in Georgia believes that it is very difficult to make a prediction due to the unsustainable picture of the spread of the virus.
"There is potential for this figure to rise even more, both nationally and globally. The situation is unsustainable in the fight against the virus. It is therefore very difficult to predict what the final impact will be. The possible development scenarios presented by us help us to predict the expected outcome. According to our scenarios, the damage in the region will be around $ 60 to $ 279 billion. Based on the average weight scenario, we can assume that we will see a loss of $ 125 billion, which is 0.6 percent of GDP, ”Rosenthal said.
He explained that the slowdown in the economic activity and consumer demand as a result of the pandemic is affecting the poorest strata, so in this situation the state's priority is to slow down the virus and make sure that businesses and residents remain resilient until economic activity resumes.
According to him, Georgia looks very good compared to many other countries, now the main thing is for people to understand how important it is to stay at home and practice social distancing. This is a situation where the problem is complex and its solution should not be left to the state, law enforcement or anyone else. According to him, we are all participating to avoid the worst case scenario.