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Azerbaijan Weekly Market Watch

Azerbaijan Weekly Market Watch

Galt&Taggart Publishes Report on Main Developments that Took Place in Azerbaijani Economy Last Week:

ADB approved two funding channels for Azerbaijan amounting to US$ 1.5bn Asian Development Bank (ADB) will provide US$ 1.0bn in private and public sector assistance to expand Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II gas field. The assistance comprises a $500 million private sector loan to the Southern Gas Corridor Closed Joint Stock Company (SGC) and a $500 million sovereign counter-guaranteed partial credit guarantee. The guarantee will back $526 million in commercial loans made by a consortium of international banks to SGC, which is 51% owned by the Azerbaijan government and 49% by the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). Additionally, according to ADB’s official statement, ADB approved US$ 0.5bn loan to the budget through its countercyclical support facility, which will contribute to the government’s $1.4 billion countercyclical stimulus package.

Money transfers abroad restricted further Azerbaijan introduced several limitations on money transfers abroad. According to the new regulations, individuals will be able to transfer abroad up to US$ 10,000 per month. In the case of payments for education, medical treatment, and participation in various events, individuals can transfer a higher amount upon submission of supporting documentation. Additionally, individuals can transfer higher amounts in case the original money was transferred from abroad supported by the necessary documentation.

SOFAZ sold US$ 301.5mn in FX auctions in November 2016 At FX auctions organized by CBAR, State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan Republic sold US$ 301.5mn in November 2016, 18.7% less than in the previous month and the lowest amount of the last nine months. Our calculations indicate that SOFAZ has sold US$ 4.6bn in 11M16, corresponding to AZN 7.3bn, which in turn amounts to 68.8% of the budgeted expenditure of SOFAZ for 2016.

SOCAR tax payments down 13.0% y/y in November 2016 SOCAR paid AZN 116.2mn (-13.0% y/y) in taxes to the state budget in November 2016. Additionally, it paid AZN 12.4mn (+10.7% y/y) to the State Social Protection Fund (SSPF). In YTD terms, SOCAR paid AZN 1.3bn (-9.9% y/y) in taxes to the state budget and AZN 131.8mn (+4.1% y/y) to SSPF.

Oil price: Brent oil price was down 0.2% w/w to US$ 54.3/bbl (up 35.5% y/y), while WTI oil price decreased 0.3% w/w to US$ 51.5/bbl (up 38.6% y/y). In AZN terms, Brent oil price was down 0.1% w/w to AZN 96.1 (up 129.0% y/y).

Exchange rate: On December 9, 2016, Central Bank’s AZN/US$ rate was 1.7430 (+0.5% w/w) and AZN/EUR rate was 1.8487 (-0.2% w/w). At Bloomberg AZN/US$ was trading at 1.7694 (+0.2% w/w) while AZN/EUR was trading at 1.8631 (-0.5% w/w).

Monetary policy rate: Monetary policy rate was unchanged at 15.0%.

Corporate Eurobonds: State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) Eurobond (SOIAZ 03/30) closed at 6.5% yield, trading at 103.5 (+3.2% w/w). International Bank of Azerbaijan Eurobonds (IBAZAZ 06/19) were trading at 99.1 (+0.3% w/w), yielding 6.0%.

Azerbaijan Sovereign Eurobonds (AZERBJ 03/24) closed at 99.9 (+0.6% w/w) at 4.8% yield to maturity.