Total energy consumption in 10 countries of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) will increase by 33% in the next 15 years, which is a prerequisite for the growth of Russian exports, according to the report for the meeting of the Commission under the President of Russia on the development strategy of fuel and energy complex.
Experts’ working group to promote the interests of Russia in the Asia-Pacific region analyzed the state of the energy sector in China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar and Bangladesh.
According to the report, the primary energy consumption in these countries is about 90% of the consumption of ATP, and about 40% of the world consumption. The main feature of the dynamics of changes in the energy mix of the APR countries will be a gradual shift towards the use of more environmentally friendly energy sources, in natural gas in particular.
Currently, an average of 48% of the energy balance of the analyzed countries takes coal, 23% – oil, 10% – natural gas, 10% – biomass, 6% – hydropower and only 2% are nuclear power and renewable sources such as wind and sun.
Coal will remain a key fuel for the region. But during this period, coal consumption will grow by only 10% and oil – by 27%, gas – 88%, nuclear energy – more than 4 times, hydro – 50% of renewable energy – 40%. There will be a decrease in the share of coal in the energy mix to 40% and an increase in natural gas consumption up to 14%. The share of nuclear energy will increase to 5%. Shares of oil, biomass, hydropower and renewable energy sources will change slightly.
The rate of reduction of the share of coal in the energy balance of the region will be largely due to the government policies implemented in each of the countries in the region in the control of emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gasses.
In the Asia-Pacific region, there is considerable potential to build supplies of Russian energy resources – gas to China, Japan, India, South Korea and Malaysia, and oil and coal – above all in China. The alleged accelerated growth of gas consumption creates an increased demand for gas transmission and distribution infrastructure, which provides opportunities to participate in its creation in China, India, South Korea, Bangladesh and Myanmar. In addition, according to the report, it is worth paying attention to the needs of the infrastructure for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China and India, as well as the supply of equipment for gas-fired plants.
In China and Indonesia, there is a need to develop refining capacity, which opens up opportunities for projects in this area. India and Myanmar are paying considerable attention to the implementation of their high potentials in hydropower and thus in need of appropriate technologies.
In India, Indonesia, Myanmar continues to actively electrification, which opens up opportunities for the realization of complex projects with Russian technology and equipment. In addition, in Japan and China, there are opportunities to export electricity because of its proximity to Russia and the presence of the corresponding demand.
Some countries with low levels of income, in particular India, Vietnam and Myanmar, have sufficiently large reserves of energy resources, which are still not involved in commercial use. In these countries the gas exploration services are very developed.
After the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant there appeared a cautious attitude to in the region toward the nuclear power. Nevertheless, India, Republic of Korea, Bangladesh and Myanmar plan to continue their programs for the development in this direction.