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Geostat: 4,9% Rapid Estimate of Economic Growth in Feb

March 31, 2015 –National Statistics Office of Georgia, Geostat, released its Rapid Estimate of Economic Growth for past February.

The estimated real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate amounted to 4.9 percent yo-y in February 2015. The estimated real GDP average growth reached 2.7 percent for JanuaryFebruary 2015 y-o-y.

The report reads:

Geostat produces monthly rapid estimations of real GDP growth using administrative data on VAT taxpayers’ turnover, fiscal and monetary statistics. The compilation of rapid estimates is an internationally adopted practice to obtain preliminary monthly growth of real GDP. For those sectors, where preliminary monthly data do not exist (e.g. agriculture, non-observed economy etc.), the estimations are based on the data for previous periods. Therefore, the actual quarterly real GDP growth may differ from monthly rapid estimates.

“The data on VAT taxpayers’ turnover for the previous months might be updated on a monthly basis, implying corresponding adjustments of real GDP growth estimates,” — reads the Gestat disclaimer.
Together with this the report shows data on the country’s exports, indicators of business statistics, change of VAT payers’ turnover, as well as Indicators of Central Government Budget and the Output of the Banking Sector.

The dire picture in the country’s ever-decreasing exports is evident in February’s report:

export

The contrast between the proportion of the country’s imports and exports is staggering. The exports of Georgia are roughly three times less than the country’s exports. However, a hope-inducing increase in exports amounting to USD 10,8 million can be observed.

Moving on to the other data presented in the report, hopeful news for the country’s budget emerge as a 11,2% increase in turnover of VAT paying individuals year-on-year is seen, compared to the previous month’s data:

VAT GEOSTAT

However, as-of-yet,  the government budget’s picture remains pessimistic during the on-going national currency crisis, with GEL 118.1 million loss in government’s revenues.

budget

In the banking sector of Georgia, commercial banks have shown a GEL 6,7 million increase in their output, while the NBG is showing a GEL 0,2 million decrease.

banking Geostat

Overall, Geostat’s preliminary data for estimated real GDP  growth gives us the 4,9% figure mentioned above.

Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

By Nino Gojiashvili