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Georgia is Distinguished by Quarterly Trend in the Region

Georgia is distinguished by Quarterly Trend (+ 5%) in the region, but how expectations will be reflected on the IMF forecast on the economy growth will become clear on May 18. The last rate is 3.5%.

According to the National Bank’s monetary policy report, the situation in the region has been largely unstable, although signs of recovery are also observed.

Industry sector has increased in Russia, international trade data is improved as well, which has been supported by oil prices stability and pursued sporadic policy. Inflation has also decreased along with the reduction of ruble impairment pressure. According to the IMF projection, Russia’s GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2017, which is more by 0.3 percentage point comparing to January forecast.

The growth has slowed down in Ukraine, industrial production dropped by 5% y-o-y, which has been partially neutralized by the IMF’s decision on another tranche in April. Overall, the IMF’s annual forecast was worsened to 2%.

Economic activity has significantly improved in Armenia by the beginning of 2017, after the slow growth of 2016. The increase of money transfers and export revenues has positively reflected on the consumer sentiment, which has been added by new liberal reforms from the new government administration and willingness to facilitate foreign investment, but the forecast was determined by 2.9% lower than the October’s forecast.

There are signs of recovery in the economy of Azerbaijan. In parallel with increased investments, the data of non-oil industry has improved. Under the stable price of oil, the fall in the oil industry has slowed down. However, the IMF forecast is worsened to 1% for 2017.

After the weak second half of 2016 in Turkey, as a result of the government’s counter-cycle measures, consumer demand and industrial production have significantly increased early in 2017. However, the uncertainty was reflected due to political processes. Consumer price inflation reached the highest rate due to the high pressure of lira impairment, March -11.3%.

The IMF predicts growth of 2.5% in 2017, worse than it has been in October of the previous year.