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EBRD Predicts Revitalization of the Region

EBRD Predicts Revitalization of the Region

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts revitalization of the region despite the sustained high risks.

TOP- 7  (2016●2017)

Georgia 3,4% ●3,9%
Azerbaiajn (3,0) ●1.0%
Aremnia 2.0 ●2,0%
Ukraine 1,5 ●2.0%
Belorussia (3.0) ●1.0%
Russia (0.6) ●1.2%
Turkey 3.0 ●3.0%

According to European Bank, South-Eastern Europe improves rating at the expense of the growth of tourism. Russia and Turkey are coming out of recession. Ukraine and Moldova are in the regime of finishing recession.

Georgia is distinguished in the rating with upward trend. European Banks expects acceleration of economic growth. It is conditioned by the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) signed with the EU, which is contributing strengthening of competitiveness, as well as strong internal and foreign investments in the infrastructure and other spheres.

Growth in Georgia is expected to improve to 3.4 per cent in 2016, compared with 2.8 per cent in 2015. Trust in monetary policy and in the Lari is increasing, which can also be expected to reduce dollarization in the economy, which currently stands at 67 per cent on the deposit side and 64 per cent on the loan side. The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and now the prospect of EU visa free regime is contributing to improved investor confidence. While the external environment remains challenging, with remittances and exports negatively affected by recession in Russia and a sharp slowdown in regional trading partners, in 2016 the country is enjoying a strong tourism season – helped by constraints on other tourism destinations earlier in the year – and increased investor confidence supported by the business-friendly policies of the government and the National Bank of Georgia. In 2017, growth is expected to increase further to 3.9 per cent, supported by an increasing impact of the DCFTA implementation and increased competitiveness, as well as strong domestic and foreign direct investment in infrastructure and other sectors.

It should be noted, that IMF relatively has high expectations. The IMF predicts economic growth of 3,4% this year, while 5,2% – in the next year. NBG expects growth of 3,5%, while the government focuses on increase of 3%.